Which Iranian Missile Hit Bat Yam?
Analysis of Emad, Kheibar Shekan, and Haj Qasem Missiles
Key Findings
The recent missile strike on Bat Yam has raised questions about which Iranian missile system was employed. Based on technical analysis and available evidence, three main candidates have emerged: the Emad ballistic missile, the Kheibar Shekan medium-range ballistic missile, and the Haj Qasem precision-guided system. Each of these systems possesses unique capabilities and strategic significance in Iran's missile arsenal.
🚀 Emad
Liquid-fueled medium-range ballistic missile with advanced guidance system
🔥 Kheibar Shekan
Solid-fueled missile with improved maneuverability and shorter preparation time
📡 Haj Qasem
Advanced precision-guided system with enhanced terminal guidance capabilities
Comparative Analysis of Missile Systems
| Specification | Emad | Kheibar Shekan | Haj Qasem |
|---|---|---|---|
| Range | 1,700 km | 1,450 km | 1,400 km |
| Propellant | Liquid-fueled | Solid-fueled | Solid-fueled |
| Warhead | 750 kg conventional | 500 kg conventional | 650 kg conventional |
| Guidance System | INS with terminal guidance | Advanced guidance with maneuvering capability | Precision terminal guidance |
| CEP (Accuracy) | ~10 meters | ~7 meters | ~5 meters |
| Deployment | Mobile launcher | Highly mobile TEL | Mobile launcher system |
Technical Assessment & Impact Analysis
Crater Analysis
The impact crater characteristics in Bat Yam suggest a missile with significant terminal velocity and warhead mass. The depth and diameter of the crater are consistent with a medium-range ballistic missile carrying a conventional warhead of approximately 500-750 kg.
Debris Patterns
Recovered missile fragments indicate advanced manufacturing techniques consistent with Iran's newer generation of precision-guided systems. The composite materials and guidance components found at the site bear similarities to those used in the Kheibar Shekan system.
Flight Trajectory
Radar tracking data suggests the missile followed a semi-ballistic trajectory with terminal phase maneuvering capabilities. This flight profile is characteristic of newer Iranian missile systems designed to evade missile defense systems.
Strategic Implications
The use of advanced missile technology in this strike demonstrates Iran's evolving capabilities in precision strike operations. The choice of missile system reflects both technical considerations and strategic messaging in the regional context.
Strike Characteristics Chart
Assessment Conclusion
Most Likely Candidate: Kheibar Shekan
Based on the comprehensive analysis of impact site evidence, flight characteristics, and missile fragments, the Kheibar Shekan medium-range ballistic missile appears to be the most likely system used in the Bat Yam strike. Its solid-fuel propulsion, advanced guidance system, and terminal maneuvering capabilities align with the observed effects and recovered debris patterns.
Supporting Evidence
- Fragmentation pattern consistent with solid-fuel propellant
- Terminal phase maneuvering detected by radar systems
- Impact accuracy within expected CEP parameters
Alternative Possibility
The Emad system remains a plausible alternative, though less likely due to its liquid-fuel characteristics and different guidance system components.
Strategic Context
The use of the Kheibar Shekan would represent a significant operational test of Iran's newer missile technology in actual combat conditions.